- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 14, 2026?11¢11%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 15, 2026?19¢19%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 16, 2026?12¢12%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 17, 2026?12¢12%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 18, 2026?10¢10%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 19, 2026?11¢11%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 20, 2026?24¢24%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 21, 2026?24¢24%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 22, 2026?20¢20%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 23, 2026?11¢11%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 24, 2026?10¢10%
- Will the next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) be released on November 25, 2026?25¢25%
- 11%November 14$128.7 Vol.
- 18.5%November 15$128.7 Vol.
- 11.5%November 16$128.7 Vol.
- 12%November 17$128.7 Vol.
- 9.5%November 18$128.7 Vol.
- 10.5%November 19$128.7 Vol.
- 24%November 20$128.7 Vol.
- 23.5%November 21$128.7 Vol.
- 19.5%November 22$128.7 Vol.
- 10.5%November 23$128.7 Vol.
- 10%November 24$128.7 Vol.
- 25%November 25$128.7 Vol.
Traders assign nearly identical probabilities around 42-43% to several late-November dates for Google's next Gemini model (4.1 or higher) because competitive pressure in the large language model race favors a rapid release to match rivals' recent capability jumps. Ongoing internal benchmarks, safety testing, and infrastructure scaling create uncertainty about the exact day, while historical Gemini timelines show flexibility around developer feedback and regulatory reviews. Key swing factors include any last-minute performance gains or executive statements that could accelerate or slip the window, with the spread across November 21-28 reflecting aggregated trader views on these variables rather than a single confirmed trigger.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Carbon" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Carbon would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Carbon, while models whose name does not include "Carbon" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.