- Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?<1¢
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?28¢
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?71¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts holds a strong position in Nebraska’s 2026 Senate contest due to the state’s Republican lean, his decisive May primary victory with over 80% of the vote, and prior statewide success as governor plus a 2024 special election win. Dan Osborn, running as an independent after a competitive 2024 race, has consolidated support following the July withdrawal of Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank, who cleared the path for him. Recent fundraising reports show Ricketts outraising Osborn significantly, while available polling indicates a lead for the incumbent though some surveys reflect a narrower margin. These factors underpin trader consensus around Ricketts at roughly 70% implied probability, with the independent option trailing and the Democratic outcome near zero.