- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?10¢
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?90¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat on August 11, 2026, defeating U.S. Rep. Angie Craig with roughly 59% of the primary vote after incumbent Tina Smith opted not to seek reelection. Michele Tafoya captured the Republican nomination the same day with 52% against challengers including former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze. Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and Flanagan enters the general election with the advantages of statewide name recognition as lieutenant governor, progressive endorsements, and the state’s consistent Democratic voting patterns in federal contests. Early polling and trader positioning reflect these structural factors ahead of the November 3 ballot, with limited general-election developments occurring in the week since the primaries concluded.