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- Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?43¢
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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marília Campos (PT) holds the clearest lead in recent Datafolha and other polling at roughly 11% for one of Minas Gerais’s two Senate seats, ahead of Carlos Viana (PSD) at 8% and Domingos Sávio (PL) at 6%, with the remaining field scattered below 5%. High undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45% reflect the early stage of the campaign, which officially began after the mid-August registration of 17 candidacies. Marília’s position draws support from her record as former mayor of Contagem and visibility in PT-aligned events, while Viana benefits from incumbency and Sávio from PL organization. The fragmented field and absence of consolidated alliances keep first-place probabilities closely contested, with further polling releases, candidate debates, and coalition moves likely to produce clearer separation before the October vote.