Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner
- Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?64¢
- Will Nikolas Ferreira win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?8¢
- Will Aécio Neves win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Benoni Mendes win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?1¢
- Will Marcelo Aro win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Vittorio Medioli win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Euclydes Pettersen win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?9¢
- Will Tadeu Leite win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?<1¢
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Cleitinho Azevedo holds a commanding lead in Minas Gerais gubernatorial polling, often exceeding 30-45% in first-round scenarios and prevailing in most projected runoffs, which underpins his 64.6% market share as traders price in his frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 vote. Recent party convention disputes and his early August decision to step aside following a family loss have introduced uncertainty, yet the wide gap over fragmented rivals sustains the implied probability. Alexandre Kalil, Mateus Simões, and Patrus Ananias trail in the low-to-mid teens or single digits in available surveys without Azevedo, reflecting divided center-left and incumbent-aligned support. Lower-priced names such as Flávio Roscoe and Rodrigo Pacheco register minimal polling traction, consistent with limited momentum in the crowded field.