MI-11 House Election Winner

PoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsNov 4 ElectionsHouse ElectionsMichigan Midterm
Start Date
2026-01-28
End Date
2026-11-03
24h Volume
$5K
Total Volume
$76K
  • Will the Republican Party win the MI-11 House seat?3¢
  • Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?96¢

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Michigan's 11th congressional district has maintained a clear Democratic tilt in recent cycles, with the seat held by Haley Stevens through multiple reelections by comfortable margins in the suburban Oakland County area. Stevens's decision to retire and pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet the August 2026 Democratic primary produced a strong nominee in state Sen. Jeremy Moss, who defeated his main opponents by a wide margin. Republican nominee Ethan Baker, Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic performance has historically exceeded statewide averages. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the combination of partisan baseline, recent primary clarity, and limited evidence of a competitive Republican path absent a major national shift or unexpected local development before November.