- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke?36¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Linke receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place Die Linke between 10% and 12% while the CDU registers 9–10%, producing a narrow but consistent edge for the Left Party in vote share. This positioning reflects Die Linke’s established eastern base and its participation in the incumbent SPD-led coalition, set against the CDU’s long-term erosion of support in the region where the AfD leads at 35–36% and the SPD holds near 29%. A mid-August TV debate exclusion controversy involving both parties generated limited media attention but has not shifted the underlying survey numbers. Trader consensus at 65% for Die Linke therefore tracks the stable polling gap and the absence of major catalysts that would reverse the relative standing before election day.