Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?

ScienceWeatherPandemicsMeasles
Start Date
2026-07-31
End Date
2026-08-31
24h Volume
$6K
Total Volume
$16K
  • Will there be at least 2500 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?>99¢
  • Will there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?>99¢
  • Will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?98¢
  • Will there be at least 2650 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?96¢
  • Will there be at least 2700 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?84¢
  • Will there be at least 2750 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?58¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Ongoing measles transmission in the United States, driven by 38 new outbreaks in 2026 and 94% of cases linked to sustained chains rather than isolated imports, continues to push cumulative totals higher according to CDC surveillance. As of August 13, 2026, 2,566 confirmed cases have been reported, exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289, with the majority occurring among unvaccinated individuals and concentrated in jurisdictions experiencing prolonged activity. The virus’s high basic reproduction number sustains rapid spread in under-immunized clusters, while weekly CDC updates and state reporting provide the primary near-term data influencing trader assessments of additional cases through August 31. Model consensus on incubation periods and contact tracing lags supports expectations of continued but decelerating increments absent major interventions.