- Will there be at least 2800 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?>99¢
- Will there be at least 2825 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?>99¢
- Will there be at least 2850 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?>99¢
- Will there be at least 2900 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?>99¢
- Will there be at least 2950 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?2¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Sustained domestic transmission from dozens of ongoing outbreaks continues to drive elevated U.S. measles activity, with the CDC reporting 2,903 confirmed cases as of August 27, 2026—already far exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289 and marking the highest annual count since 1991. Approximately 94% of cases involve unvaccinated individuals or those with unknown status, concentrated among children and adolescents in 47 jurisdictions, while MMR kindergarten coverage has fallen to 92.4%. Recent weekly increments, including 211 cases added in one update, reflect active clusters in states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio amid pockets of lower vaccination. Official CDC surveillance updates through August 31 will determine final resolution thresholds, with any additional confirmed reports from active transmission chains representing the primary variable for trader positioning.