- Will Sargento Laudicério win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Wellington Fagundes win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?64¢
- Will Doutora Natasha win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Mauricio Coelho win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Otaviano Pivetta win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?28¢
- Will Rafaell Milas win the 2026 Mato Grosso gubernatorial election?<1¢
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds the leading position in the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages, extensive legislative experience, and backing from the PL along with aligned national figures. The October 4 first-round vote features six registered candidates after August conventions and TSE filings, with Fagundes launching street campaigning in mid-August. Incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos), who assumed the governorship in March 2026, trails amid questions over eligibility raised by opponents and recent court rulings on campaign funding access. Lower-polling contenders including Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD), Maurício Coelho, Rafaell Milas, and Sargento Laudicério draw minimal support in available surveys. Recent alliance formations, such as União Brasil's endorsement of Pivetta, and the absence of major new polling shifts reinforce current trader consensus around the frontrunner's path to victory.