- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?15¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Current global volcanic monitoring by the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows no large-scale unrest or precursors at caldera systems capable of VEI ≥6 events, with activity limited to moderate ongoing eruptions at sites like Kīlauea, Etna, Fuego, and Merapi that fall well below this threshold. VEI 6 eruptions, which require plume heights exceeding 25 km and ejecta volumes near 10 km³, occur on average every several decades based on the geologic record, making one in the remaining months of 2026 statistically improbable without rapid escalation. Recent data indicate stable conditions at high-risk areas such as Yellowstone, with no model consensus or observational shifts pointing to imminent major activity. Trader sentiment favoring an 82.3% probability of no eruption aligns with this absence of triggering developments.