- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?14¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ongoing NASA and ESA asteroid monitoring systems, including Sentry and the Risk List, show no known near-Earth objects on impact trajectories capable of releasing 10 kilotons or more for the remainder of 2026. Multiple close approaches this month, such as 2026 PX at 2.4 lunar distances, are confirmed safe misses, while risk lists highlight potential events only in 2027 and beyond. Enhanced detection via surveys like LSST continues to identify small objects but has not flagged any city-killer-scale threats this year. With over half the year elapsed without incident and historical rarity of such strikes, trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability, though undetected small bodies remain a residual uncertainty.