MA-06 House Election Winner

PoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsNov 4 ElectionsHouse ElectionsMassachusetts Midterm
Start Date
2026-01-28
End Date
2026-11-03
24h Volume
$6K
Total Volume
$27K
  • Will the Republican Party win the MA-06 House seat?3¢
  • Will the Democratic Party win the MA-06 House seat?95¢

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The Massachusetts 6th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent results in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Seth Moulton's retirement has opened the seat, drawing multiple Democratic primary contenders ahead of the September 1 contest, while Republican options remain limited. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic due to the district's northeastern Massachusetts composition, including areas like Salem and Peabody, where Democratic performance has historically exceeded 60% margins. A national Republican surge, primary backlash, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such shifts improbable based on current evidence.