MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner
- Will Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?92¢
- Will Jason Poulos be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?7¢
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the MA-04 Democratic primary due to his established record, substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $2.9 million, and a July 2026 internal poll showing him leading challenger Jason Poulos 64% to 17% among likely voters. The September 1 primary occurs in a strongly Democratic district where incumbents typically consolidate support quickly through name recognition and institutional backing. Other declared candidates have withdrawn, narrowing the field. While Poulos has highlighted AI-related workforce issues, trader consensus reflected in current pricing indicates limited path for an upset absent major late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or new endorsements altering the race dynamics before ballots are cast.