MA-02 House Election Winner
- Will the Republican Party win the MA-02 House seat?6¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the MA-02 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Massachusetts' 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean exceeding D+13 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which underpins trader consensus around the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent implied probability. Incumbent Jim McGovern won reelection in 2024 with 68.6 percent of the vote and faces only a September 1 Democratic primary ahead of the November 3 general election. No Republican candidates have filed for either the primary or general ballot, consistent with long-standing voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds include an unexpected late Republican filing before deadlines close or a significant primary upset altering the Democratic nominee, though historical results and current filing status limit near-term pathways for change.