- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on August 24?17¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 24?95¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate an overnight low near 28°C for Wuhan on August 24, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and warm, humid air masses typical of late summer in the region. Official and ensemble models consistently project minimum temperatures of 27–29°C, with daytime highs reaching 35–37°C under partly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorm chances that are unlikely to produce significant cooling. This alignment of model consensus, recent observations showing evening temperatures around 28–30°C, and the absence of any strong frontal systems or unusual advection explains the market’s overwhelming 94.5% implied probability on 28°C. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected nocturnal rain event or rapid model revision, but current guidance shows low likelihood of the minimum falling to 27°C or below.