- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 2°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 3°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 4°C on September 1?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 5°C on September 1?95¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from agencies including New Zealand's MetService and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 5°C for Wellington on September 1, driven by clear to partly cloudy conditions overnight with moderate northwesterly winds limiting radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends from late August, where similar synoptic setups produced lows in the 4–7°C range, consistent with early-spring climatology for the region (average September minimum near 8–10°C but with frequent cooler intrusions). Trader consensus at 94.8% for 5°C reflects high confidence in the narrow forecast envelope, though modest model spread and local topographic effects around Wellington Harbour could allow a 1–2°C deviation if cloud cover increases or winds weaken more than projected. Final station readings will determine resolution.