- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 30?98¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent MetService and station observations confirm Wellington's overnight minimum reached 9°C amid mostly clear skies and moderate northwesterly winds, aligning with model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs that limited radiative cooling under the prevailing maritime airflow. Late-August climatology shows typical lows near 8–10°C, and the absence of cold-air advection or calm conditions has kept temperatures from falling further despite the winter season. This scientific backing underpins the market's 98%+ implied probability for 9°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted sharp drop in dew points or sudden wind lull allowing greater surface cooling, though updated short-range guidance shows low likelihood before midnight.