- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on August 28?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 28?40¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 28?40¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 28?41¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 28?56¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a mild winter day for Wellington on August 28, driven by northerly winds advecting warmer air ahead of a trough, with daytime highs near 13–14°C and overnight lows expected around 10–11°C under increasing cloud and rain. This synoptic pattern, including a strong wind watch for gusts to 100 km/h, has elevated trader confidence in a minimum temperature near 13°C or 10–12°C, as reflected in the market-implied odds. Historical August minima average lower, but current observational data and model consensus show reduced cooling due to the wind regime and limited radiative loss. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine overnight minimums ahead of market resolution.