- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on September 8?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 8?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 8?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 8?35¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 8?38¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 8?18¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 8?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 8?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 8?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 8?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on September 8?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent heavy rainfall and persistently high humidity from a moist southerly flow have kept overnight lows elevated near 24°C, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 23–24°C (combined ~72%). Official JMA guidance and ensemble forecasts project a minimum of 24°C under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and dew points near 23–24°C, limiting radiational cooling. Model spreads between 23–25°C reflect minor uncertainties in cloud cover timing and any brief clearing overnight on September 8. Historical September minima in Tokyo average near 21–22°C, but the current pattern of frequent showers and 85–95% relative humidity supports the higher trader consensus. Key upcoming data include updated JMA model runs and hourly observations through the early morning hours that could shift implied odds if dew point or wind forecasts revise.