- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on September 6?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on September 6?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on September 6?34¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 6?64¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate a minimum temperature near 20–21°C for Tokyo on September 6, driven by persistent rain, high humidity near 85–95%, and northerly winds that limit daytime heating and radiative cooling overnight. These conditions align with early-September climatology, where average lows hover around 21–22°C, and current observations show no rapid cooling trend or clearing skies that would push readings lower. Trader consensus reflected in the 94% combined implied probability for 20–21°C outcomes captures this stable forecast signal, with only marginal odds assigned to deviations that would require unexpected model shifts or measurement revisions before resolution.