- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 2?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 2?76¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment strongly favors 25°C as the lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 2, 2026, with 96% implied probability. This reflects consensus from official forecasts and real-time models indicating the overnight minimum will reach exactly that level at the primary observation station. Current conditions feature a warm, humid air mass with daytime highs near 30–32°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and southerly flow. Diurnal cooling overnight, combined with high humidity (around 80–90%) and light winds, supports a minimum near 25°C (77°F), consistent with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and multiple ensemble runs. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the Tokyo plain, where average lows hover around 22–24°C but recent patterns have trended slightly warmer. The dominant positioning rests on verified observational baselines and short-range forecast stability rather than speculation. Realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected nocturnal drop from clearer skies or a shift in steering winds, or minor station-specific measurement variance, though model agreement and ongoing monitoring make large deviations improbable before resolution.