- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 31?22¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 31?77¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from models and observations points to a Tokyo minimum near 23°C on August 31, 2026, as the dominant driver of the 77% market-implied probability. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80-90%, and light easterly winds have limited overnight radiative cooling after recent cooler readings around 20°C on August 29-30. Official guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing near 23-24°C amid a returning warmer air mass, with historical late-August averages in the low-to-mid 20s providing context. Traders appear to weigh the narrow window for further drops against model agreement on minimal overnight decline, with resolution hinging on verified Japan Meteorological Agency data.