- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on August 30?80¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on August 30?11¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on August 30?18¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus heavily favors a 20°C minimum in Tokyo on August 30, reflecting JMA and ensemble model guidance showing overnight lows stabilizing near 20–21°C amid persistent cloud cover, light northerly flow, and residual moisture from recent showers. Recent observations confirm this trajectory: the Aug 29 minimum reached 20.0°C at Tokyo stations, with dew points remaining elevated around 19–20°C and skies staying mostly cloudy through the night. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clearer summer nights, keeping temperatures above the 18°C threshold while capping upside from warmer advection. Upcoming JMA updates and any revised model runs tonight will be the key near-term catalysts, as small shifts in wind or cloud timing could adjust the exact minimum within the narrow 19–21°C band dominating market-implied odds.