- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 27?13¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 27?77¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 27?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 27?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 27, 2026, holding near 25–27°C amid persistent high humidity, cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market-implied 72.5% probability for a daily minimum of 26°C, as warm, moist air masses from the Pacific maintain elevated dew points and suppress typical nocturnal drops. Late-August climatological averages place Tokyo minima around 23–24°C, but recent model consensus and observed trends this season favor warmer overnight conditions, with only modest downside risk to 25°C or below if clearer skies develop. Updated evening guidance and real-time observations will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.