- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 26?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 26?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 26?98¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate persistently high overnight temperatures in Tokyo due to a strengthened Pacific High and regional heatwave conditions in late August 2026, keeping minimums near or above 26–28°C amid elevated humidity and limited nocturnal cooling. This setup positions 28°C as the market leader at 83.5% implied probability, consistent with observed trends where urban heat island effects and weak winds prevent typical drops toward the 24°C seasonal average. Shorter-range updates ahead of the overnight period on the 26th could refine this, though model consensus currently shows low likelihood of cooler air advection.