- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 24?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on a 26°C low in Tokyo on August 24, reflecting Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models that project overnight minima near this threshold under partly cloudy skies with light showers and typical late-summer humidity. Historical climatology shows August lows averaging 24–25°C, with urban heat island effects often elevating readings slightly above rural baselines. Recent model runs indicate minimal deviation expected from steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the region. The market-implied odds align with observed conditions through the early morning hours, though a stronger-than-forecast rain band or clearer skies could shift the final measurement by 1–2°C before official station data closes the period.