- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 22?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 22?12¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 22?83¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on August 22?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus heavily favors a 24–25°C overnight low in Tokyo on August 22, 2026, reflecting consistent forecast guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and supporting models. Typical late-August conditions feature average minimums of 23–24°C, driven by high humidity, limited radiative cooling under cloudy or humid skies, and the urban heat island effect that retains warmth through the night. Official JMA outlooks issued around August 20–21 project a minimum near 24°C under mostly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and high humidity (around 80–84%), which suppresses temperature drops below seasonal norms. Historical climatology shows nighttime lows rarely fall below 23°C in August without strong frontal passages or clear, dry air—neither of which is indicated in current model runs. The 72% market-implied probability on 25°C and 17% on 24°C capture the narrow range of uncertainty between forecast guidance and potential micro-variations in urban measurement stations. Upcoming JMA updates or refined short-range model outputs remain the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities if overnight cloud cover or wind patterns deviate from expectations.