- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 21?10¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 21?25¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 21?49¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 21?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models project Tokyo's overnight low on August 21 near 24–25°C, consistent with late-summer climatology where average minimums hover around 23–24°C amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects that limit nocturnal cooling. Cloud cover and scattered showers expected that evening further moderate temperature drops by enhancing downward longwave radiation and suppressing clear-sky radiative losses. Trader consensus, with 26°C and 25°C capturing over 73% of implied probability, reflects this forecast stability and low likelihood of significant deviation absent an unexpected frontal passage or model shift before resolution. Historical analogs show rare August dips below 23°C in central Tokyo under similar synoptic patterns.