- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on August 29?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on August 29?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 29?43¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 29?47¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 29?45¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 29?46¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 29?45¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from official monitoring agencies show Shenzhen experiencing persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered thunderstorms on August 29, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and keeping the daily minimum temperature in the narrow 25–29°C range that dominates current market-implied odds. Subtropical monsoon conditions, typical for late August with average lows near 26°C, are reinforced by light variable winds and urban heat retention, reducing the chance of significant drops below 25°C. Model consensus on exact minimums remains split due to variable rainfall timing and intensity, which can either enhance or suppress cooling. Updated local observations through early morning confirm temperatures holding above 27°C amid overcast skies, sustaining tight probabilities across the leading outcomes.