- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 25?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 25?14¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 25?97¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and elevated humidity are anchoring Shenzhen's overnight minimum near 27°C on August 25. In Shenzhen’s subtropical monsoon climate, August typically features average lows of 26–27°C. Widespread overcast skies and moderate rain limit nighttime radiative cooling while drawing in warm, moist maritime air, preventing drops below the mid-20s. Official forecasts from meteorological agencies consistently project lows of 25–27°C, aligning with current conditions of high dew points and light winds that suppress temperature falls. Recent model consensus shows no significant cold advection or clear-sky window that would allow stronger cooling, keeping 27°C as the dominant outcome at 80% implied probability. Traders are weighting these stable late-summer patterns heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to 26°C or cooler scenarios absent an unexpected shift in steering flow or precipitation timing. Updated agency briefings and any late-day forecast revisions remain the key near-term catalysts.