- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 24?10¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 24?87¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent high humidity near 90% combined with extensive cloud cover and moderate overnight rain from August 23–24 has sharply limited radiative cooling across Shenzhen’s humid subtropical climate, compressing the diurnal range and anchoring the minimum temperature near 29°C. Official agency forecasts emphasize these conditions as the dominant driver, consistent with typical August baselines where lows rarely fall below 26–27°C absent clear skies or stronger northerly flow. Traders have priced this outcome at 75.6% implied probability, reflecting real-time model consensus and the low likelihood of colder thresholds without unexpected dry-air intrusion before resolution.