- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 4?25¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 4?74¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast models indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 4 will likely reach 26–27°C, reflecting a warm, humid air mass with light northerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and high dew points near 24–25°C that limit radiative cooling. Multiple sources, including regional and global ensembles, show daytime highs of 30–31°C transitioning to these elevated lows amid scattered showers and no incoming cold front. This setup aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where minimum temperatures rarely drop below 25°C without stronger northerly flow. Trader consensus at 27°C (74.5%) incorporates the narrow range of model outputs and the upcoming official China Meteorological Administration reading, with only modest probability assigned to a 26°C outcome if additional clearing occurs overnight.