- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 31?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 31?44¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 31?47¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on August 31 will likely fall between 25–28 °C amid persistent subtropical warmth, high humidity near 80–90 %, and light southerly winds. Trader consensus splits sharply between 27 °C and 28 °C because small differences in cloud cover and timing of any scattered showers will determine how much radiational cooling occurs after sunset. Partly cloudy conditions with a 30–40 % rain chance limit strong nocturnal temperature drops, while any clearer intervals could push readings toward the lower end of the range. Historical August minima average near 24 °C, so current model agreement on elevated values reflects the absence of a strong cold front or typhoon influence through the period. Updated runs from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.