- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 30?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 30?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 30?90¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent late-summer warmth and high humidity in Shanghai are anchoring trader expectations for a 27°C minimum on August 30. Multiple forecast models and official guidance project overnight lows holding near 27–28°C under mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and light southeast winds that limit radiational cooling. Recent observations show similar minima (26–28°C) amid elevated dew points near 25–26°C and relative humidity above 85%, consistent with seasonal norms for the region. No significant cold advection or clear-sky conditions are anticipated to drop temperatures further, while upper-end outcomes above 28°C carry negligible market weight given the consensus. Updated model runs and next-day observations from local stations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.