- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 29?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 29?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 29?98¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 29?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on August 29?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus heavily favors a 27°C low in Shanghai on August 29 due to consistent forecast guidance from regional models and official monitoring showing overnight temperatures stabilizing near 27–28°C under mostly cloudy skies, light rain, and elevated humidity around 80–90%. These conditions limit radiative cooling typical of clear summer nights, aligning with recent observations where minima have hovered in this range amid southeast flow and a subtropical high-pressure influence. The strong market-implied probability reflects aggregated trader assessment of model consensus and climatological norms for late August, when daily lows rarely deviate sharply without major synoptic shifts. Unforeseen clearing or an unexpected influx of drier air could allow brief drops toward 26°C, though current data and timing make such outcomes improbable before resolution.