- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 26?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 26?97¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on August 26 will reach exactly 27°C, aligning with the market's 96.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-August climatology in the region features typical lows near 25–26°C amid high humidity and subtropical conditions, with recent model runs showing stable high-pressure dominance and minimal cooling from advection. Official data from the China Meteorological Administration will determine resolution based on station measurements. Uncertainties remain low but could arise from localized urban heat island effects, forecast revisions in the final hours, or minor discrepancies in minimum reporting thresholds.