- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 24?6¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 24?96¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast consensus from numerical weather models, including those referenced by the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, points to an overnight minimum of 27°C in Shanghai on August 24 under typical late-summer conditions of a warm, humid air mass with light winds and limited cloud cover. This aligns with climatological baselines for the period, where daily lows commonly range 25–28°C, and follows the recent August 20 resolution at exactly 27°C. Trader positioning at 95% implied probability reflects the narrow spread in guidance and absence of disruptive systems such as typhoons or cold fronts. Resolution hinges on official station observations; a brief surge of cooler maritime air or model bias could shift the recorded low, though such deviations remain low-probability given current stability.