- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 22?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 22?16¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 22?52¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 22?24¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Shanghai's lowest temperature on August 22 centers on 27°C as the most probable outcome, reflecting consensus from recent numerical weather prediction models and official guidance showing overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid widespread cloud cover and showers. Persistent subtropical high humidity, combined with expected thundershowers and overcast conditions, limits radiational cooling overnight, keeping minimum temperatures from dropping sharply below seasonal norms for late August. Ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a narrow range centered around 26–28°C, with 27°C emerging as the mode due to steady easterly flow and moisture advection from the East China Sea. Recent updates from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international guidance have reinforced this pattern, with no significant cold-air intrusion or clearing skies anticipated before the observation window closes. Higher probabilities assigned to 26°C or 28°C account for minor model spread in precipitation timing and intensity, while outcomes outside 25–29°C remain low-probability given the current atmospheric setup. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24 hours represent the key data points that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.