- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 15°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 3?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 3?94¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong model consensus from sources including the Korea Meteorological Administration, NOAA-aligned forecasts, and European models points to a minimum temperature near 21–22 °C in Incheon/Seoul on September 3. Persistent northeast flow under a stable subtropical high, combined with partly cloudy skies and dew points around 19–21 °C, supports modest overnight radiative cooling without significant advection of cooler air. Current observations on September 2 show surface temperatures holding in the low-20s °C range, aligning with ensemble guidance that keeps the overnight low above 20 °C. The 94 % market-implied probability for 22 °C reflects this tight forecast agreement and limited historical variability for early-September nights in the region. Only a rapid increase in low-level moisture or an unpredicted wind shift could realistically push readings to 21 °C or below before sunrise.