- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 9°C or below on August 25?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 10°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 11°C on August 25?4¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on August 25?35¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on August 25?27¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on August 25?26¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest model consensus from agencies like the National Institute of Meteorology points to overnight lows in São Paulo near 13–15°C on August 25 under southeasterly flow and increasing cloud cover, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–14°C. Typical August climatology yields minima of 13–14°C at the São Paulo-Guarulhos station, providing baseline context, while radiative cooling rates, boundary-layer mixing from winds, and urban heat-island effects create the narrow uncertainty band separating the leading outcomes. Any last-minute shift in cloud timing or frontal passage could tip the recorded low by 1–2°C before resolution.