- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 30?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 30?97¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate an overnight minimum of approximately 17°C in Paris on August 30 under overcast skies and light southwesterly flow, consistent with the market's 96.5% implied probability for that outcome. Recent model runs show limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and a mild maritime air mass, keeping temperatures above the long-term average low of 13.4°C while aligning closely with the upper end of typical late-August ranges. A clearer night or unexpected shift in steering patterns could allow readings to dip toward 15–16°C, though such deviations remain low-probability based on the latest consensus guidance.