- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 27?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 27?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 27?95¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and recent observations indicate the overnight minimum in Paris on August 27, 2026, will most likely reach 19°C, consistent with the market’s strong 75.5% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and light southerly to southwesterly winds are limiting radiative cooling under a mild late-summer airmass. Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as Météo-France-aligned reports and global models (GFS/ECMWF) show temperatures falling from afternoon highs near 26–29°C to lows of 17–20°C by dawn, with 19°C as the central tendency across multiple runs. This is warmer than the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 14°C for the date, reflecting the current pattern of above-normal warmth and moisture. Limited model spread and the absence of clear-sky conditions or northerly flow reduce the chance of a deeper drop to 18°C or below (combined ~25%), while probabilities for 20°C or higher remain negligible given the expected gradual nocturnal cooling. Updated model guidance and early-morning observations will be the key near-term drivers.