- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 24?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 24?96¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources including Météo-France and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 16°C for Paris on August 24, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, a moderate east-northeasterly breeze of 10–20 km/h, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under an overcast regime. Official early-morning observations at Paris-Orly reached 16°C around 06:30 local time, aligning with projected diurnal lows. This places the outcome well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 13.9°C for the date. The 95.5% market-implied probability reflects strong convergence across short-range guidance, though modest uncertainty remains if unexpected clear breaks allow further cooling toward 15°C before sunrise or if station-specific measurements diverge slightly from model consensus.