- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on August 22?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 22?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 22?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts for Paris on August 22, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near 12°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, which promote overnight radiative cooling after the recent heatwave. This setup advects milder maritime air while limiting cloud cover that would otherwise trap heat, aligning with climatological late-August lows around 14–15°C but adjusted cooler by the transient northerly flow. Trader consensus at 99.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects this model agreement and historical verification patterns for similar synoptic conditions. A realistic shift could occur if winds strengthen, increasing mixing and raising the minimum, or if unexpected cloud cover or a revised model run alters the cooling trajectory before official observations finalize resolution.