- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on August 20?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on August 20?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 20?>99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast consensus from European meteorological models indicates overnight lows in Paris stabilizing near 15°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow on August 20, consistent with seasonal norms where radiative cooling is moderated by residual daytime heat and moderate humidity. This aligns with observed early-morning readings around 15–16°C and historical averages near 14°C, producing the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 15°C minimum. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include sharper clearing overnight or an unexpected cooler advection, though ensemble guidance shows minimal divergence and low likelihood of dropping to 14°C or below by resolution.