Lowest temperature in Paris on August 18?
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 18?99¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 18?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus strongly favors a lowest temperature of 20°C in Paris on August 18, 2026, reflecting model consensus for a mild overnight low amid stable high pressure and limited radiative cooling. Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate minimum temperatures near 18–20°C under partly cloudy, muggy conditions with modest southerly warm-air advection. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-August, where average lows typically range 15–18°C but can stay elevated when cloud cover and humidity suppress nighttime cooling. The near-100% implied probability on 20°C captures this positioning, as surface observations and short-range guidance have shown little sign of sharper drops. Realistic challenges include an unexpected surge of cooler maritime air or clearer skies promoting greater radiative cooling, which could push the minimum toward 18–19°C. Updated model runs or official station readings from Paris-Montsouris will provide the decisive data as the day concludes.