- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on September 6?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 6?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 6?94¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 6?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus for Central Park indicate an overnight low of 64–67°F under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting the market's overwhelming 93.5% implied probability for a 66–67°F minimum. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where post-frontal high pressure promotes moderate radiational cooling without extreme drops. Traders appear to view the outcome as largely settled given the proximity to resolution and limited forecast spread. A sudden increase in cloud cover or stronger winds could raise the low by a degree or two, while unexpected clear, calm conditions might allow a dip toward 64°F, though current guidance shows low likelihood of outcomes outside the leading bin.