- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on September 2?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 2?7¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on September 2?94¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and easterly flow have kept overnight radiative cooling limited, anchoring the expected minimum near 66–67°F at official NYC stations such as Central Park. National Weather Service and model guidance consistently project lows in the upper 60s amid humid conditions and light winds, with recent observations showing temperatures holding in the upper 60s to low 70s through the evening. This setup aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where marine influence and moisture suppress larger drops. The market-implied 93.5% probability on 66–67°F reflects trader assessment of these stable factors. Clearer skies or a sharper wind shift could allow modest additional cooling into the mid-60s, but significant deviation below 64°F or above 70°F remains unlikely given current atmospheric conditions and short time to resolution.