- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 57°F or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on August 30?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on August 30?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 30?96¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City on August 30, 2026, project an overnight low near 70°F, directly supporting the market's strong consensus on the 70-71°F bin (75.5% implied probability). Warm, humid air with dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s, combined with southwest flow, cloud cover, and a 50% chance of evening showers or thunderstorms, limits radiational cooling and keeps minimum temperatures elevated. Model guidance from NWS and other agencies shows little disagreement, with lows consistently pinned in the upper 60s to low 70s depending on exact timing of any clearing. This late-summer pattern aligns with typical late-August climatology for the region, where persistent moisture and weak pressure gradients prevent sharp overnight drops. With resolution imminent on the calendar day, traders have heavily weighted the latest official guidance, leaving only modest probability (22.5%) on the adjacent 68-69°F range in case of slightly more clearing than expected.